The key interest rate in Uzbekistan remains at 13.5% per annum, as reported by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. This decision is driven by high inflation expectations and aggregate demand pressures on prices, despite a slight decrease in the inflation rate.
As of November, the annual inflation rate stood at 10%, which is lower than previous figures. This slowdown is primarily attributed to the stabilization of food prices. However, there are ongoing risks in the economy related to rising prices for services and non-food goods. Additionally, inflation expectations in November increased to 13.7% among the population and 12.7% among entrepreneurs.
The Central Bank emphasizes that the current level of monetary policy rigidity aims to reduce inflation to the target level of 5% in the medium term. Sustained growth in aggregate demand, driven by rising real incomes and activity in the investment sector, continues to exert inflationary pressure.
It is forecasted that Uzbekistan's economy will end 2024 with a growth rate of 6–6.5%. Should inflationary risks intensify next year, the regulator does not rule out the possibility of raising the rate. The next meeting regarding the key rate will take place on January 23, 2025.